POWER-GEN International keynote address: Regaining industry-wide momentum

Conference and exhibition attendees streamed into the Valencia Ballroom of the Orlando Convention Center the morning of Dec. 14 for the kickoff session of POWER-GEN International 2010. The keynote address, “Regaining Momentum,” included presentations and a Q&A session with Dr. Terry Michalske, director of the Savannah River National Laboratory, Dr. René Umlauft, CEO of the renewable energy division for Siemens AG, Susan Tomasky, president of AEP Transmission, and David Fiorelli, president and CEO for the business development group at Tenaska.

With developing countries expected to drive energy demand and global carbon emissions in the upcoming decades, Michalske said nuclear must play a strong role in reducing emissions by 2050. An increasing portion of nuclear growth will be in the development of small modular reactors (SMRs), he said.

“Small modular reactors could be game-changing technology to take us to the new energy future,” Michalske said, asserting the benefits of SMRs: high efficiency, the ability to be monitored remotely, and a long fuel lifetime (up to 30 years).

One of the most important challenges in nuclear is getting through the regulatory approval for a carbon legislation, Michalske said. “It will take a concerted effort between the industry and government in order to move this forward.”

However, in 2009, 3 percent of worldwide generation came from renewable energy. That number is expected to rise to 17 percent by 2030, Siemens AG’s Umlauft said, with much of the increase coming from India and China. Half of renewable growth will come from wind power, 31 percent from solar, 15 percent from biomass, and 4 percent from geothermal and other sources, he said.

Umlauft said manufacturing wind turbines at a national level will create jobs and drive costs down, leading to the proposed jump in wind generation. A 20 to 30 percent reduction of onshore wind costs is expected in the next few years as a result of manufacturing changes.

While storage is often viewed as the “holy grail” of renewable energy development, Umlauft said other tools should be developed first. These tools include the creation of longer transmission lines, prediction methods for wind and solar and Smart Grid innovations.

Speaking on the need for transmission to help power generation companies regain a foothold in the economy, Tomasky of AEP Transmission said in her opening statements, “We are beginning to see the market of transmission as a business for building transmission.”

Transmission needs to be an important issue because of dramatic shifts in the generation profile that have taken place, the necessity to integrate electrically isolated large scale renewables, and the emissions control regulations that will require the retrofitting or retirement of some coal-fired plants, she said.

“Our present system is … ill-equipped to integrate large-scale renewable resources,” Tomasky said. “Renewable resources are often located in areas of the country where there is little or no transmission infrastructure.”

She said that wind generation presents a “chicken and egg issue”: Generators are hesitant to put transmission in place, and transmission is not often pursued until the generation is committed.

“Getting wind into the system requires a much more robust transmission system.”

Tomasky also said that while incentives for renewables may be uncertain, incentives for new technologies are most likely to survive. “Anything we can do to demonstrate to FERC that we’re building a smarter grid is an opportunity for return.”

Fiorelli spoke on the need for developing cleaner coal. Though the long-term effects of shale gas on gas prices are still unknown, it appears that prices and volatility of natural gas will continue to fall, he said. When combined with regulations concerns like the transport rule and rules for mercury, hazardous air pollutants and CO₂, producers should begin looking towards clean coal options before being met with the possibility of detrimental outcomes for coal plants.

Tenaska has recently developed two integrated gas combined cycle (IGCC) plants, the Taylorville Energy Center in Taylorville, Ill., and the Trailblazer Energy Center, a PC plant with Fluor carbon capture technology to be located in west Texas.

During the Q&A session, Tenaska’s Fiorelli said productivity in policy-making seems to slow with every new election. “We need people to establish policy, write rules and regulations, and then get out of the way,” Fiorelli said.

Under greenhouse gas regulations, Fiorelli said, first movers could receive bonus allowances to support project economics even under low or moderate carbon price scenarios, adding to the incentives to move toward clean coal.