As Japan and the world pick up the pieces leftover from Fukushima, the looming question is: What form(s) of energy will fill the nuclear void? Some countries, including China and Germany, have already decided to phase out nuclear developments that were underway, looking to solar or energy imports instead.
Our online audience expressed their opinions on how the nuclear development void could be filled in an online poll last week. The results show that 49 percent of poll participants expect natural gas to see the biggest gain if nuclear is suspended or delayed. That’s no surprise, with the current low prices of natural gas and the development of numerous shale gas plays in the U.S. and abroad.
A few days after the Fukushima disaster, I conducted the annual Executive Gas roundtable, which will appear in the May issue of Power Engineering magazine. Five leaders from the gas industry shared their thoughts on the natural gas industry, as well as impacts that Fukushima may have on the U.S. power industry.
John Adams, senior vice president of Power Operations at Calpine, pointed out that the predicted Nuclear Renaissance included 34 nuclear plants being licensed to go forward in the U.S. Yet of those 34, only “a handful looked like they were going to make it or were proceeding on a fast, timely basis.” Even before Fukushima, the Nuclear Renaissance was panning out to be more like a tiny ripple in the energy pond.
“Now we have this tragedy on top of it, which will actually slow it further,” Adams said.
Larry Nichols, CEO of gas exploration and production company Devon Energy, said the Japan tragedy is opening up legislators’ eyes to lower risk forms of energy.
“The nuclear problems in Japan will focus the minds of both the public and policy-makers on why we would provide loan guarantees of $38 billion for new nuclear plants. All the while we have such an abundant, cheap and clean resource like natural gas, which comes with minimal risk,” Nichols said.
Confirmations of those statements are now frequently popping up. A recent study from the Energy Information Administration found that the U.S. has twice the amount of projected recoverable natural gas (827 Tcf) than previously thought.
“Natural gas will take a much more dominant role as we go forward, moving from 20 percent to 40 percent over the next 25 years,” said Ed Walsh, executive vice president for Black & Veatch’s global energy business.
All right, enough about natural gas already. Solar is expected to be another big filler if nuclear growth in the U.S. slows down. Solar growth continues to grow in California, where on March 30 The California Assembly approved a bill that gives utilities until 2020 to have 33 percent of their generation sources come from renewable energy. New Jersey continues to make strides in solar growth as well. According to an April 4 speech by Rhone Resch, president of the Solar Energy Industries Association, the New Jersey solar market grew by 139 percent in 2010 and more than 100 MW was installed.
It is likely that nuclear development in the U.S. will not continue quite as was planned. However, as of March 15, President Barack Obama said that regulators should continue with the approval of construction licenses for new nuclear power plants despite Japan's nuclear crisis.
If a nuclear development slow or halt does occur, it’s likely that all forms of energy will work to fill the void. If natural gas prices reach a place of stability, a large portion of the nuclear development void will likely be filled by gas. Solar will also have its role, as well as hydro, wind, geothermal and biomass. Coal may even play a filler role through the use of supercritical and ultra-supercritical technologies could reduce carbon emissions and boost efficiencies, as well as IGCC plants.
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